Cosmos ⚛️ September 2019 Network Analysis
- Learning from the failed Cosmos Hub 3 launch
- IBC is coming, beginning with Game of Zones
- Community fund has over 176k ATOMs
- 7.50% inflation and rewards rate ~10.37% (know the difference!)
- Slight decrease in voting power inequality, but similar to last month
- The top 10 validators have 51% of the voting power (unless delegators override)
You can find August’s network analysis here.
Failed Cosmos Hub 3 Upgrade
Cosmos Hub 3 was due to launch on Sep 24, 2019, according to Cosmos Hub 3 Upgrade Proposal D. However, the upgrade failed, due to a bug in the migration procedure. The Cosmos Hub was down for a total of 2 hours and 15 minutes, which was 1 hour and 15 minutes longer than scheduled. The bug has been fixed and is due for release.
This failure has exposed flaws in the community’s testing and upgrade procedures, which we believe will lead to more stability in future Cosmos upgrades. We think that other networks will also learn from this experience.
It’s worth noting that Regen Networks team has been contracted by the ICF to implement automatic upgrades, a method that should make this process much simpler and faster. With this method, we expect the full upgrade of a decentralized network to have under 2.5 minutes of downtime.
In the meantime, the next upgrade proposal will include more thorough criteria for assessing the need for a rollback, as well as instructions for co-ordinating and executing a rollback, should the need arise.
Recall that Inter-Blockchain Communication is the reason for the Cosmos Hub’s existence, and it’s coming. The 1.0 version of the IBC spec has been released, and Game of Zones, its incentivized testnet, is being prepared. Stay tuned for more updates, and check out Staking Hub–hint, there will likely be a Game of Zones AMA in the near future.
The community pool has 176k ATOMs as of September 27, 2019, according to Hubble.
How is the pool funded? By my calculation, 3.78 ATOMs are currently minted each block, 2% of which (~0.08 ATOM) go to the community pool.
ATOM supply inflation continues decreasing
As of September 20, 2019, the Cosmos Hub had a bond ratio of ~71%, which is 4% above the target bond ratio of 67%. Inflation will continue decreasing (at a rate of 13% per year) toward a minimum of 7%. At the time of writing, Cosmos’ inflation is 7.50% and, by my calculation, rewards rate is 10.37%. The number of newly-minted ATOMs is in keeping with the monthly average of ~1.4M.
Want to understand the relationship between inflation and rewards rate? Check out this recent article.
Voting Power Inequality
This past month, the voting power of the bottom 90% of Cosmos Hub validators has increased by 1%, and (provided that their delegators don’t override) they hold 49% of the Cosmos Hub voting power.
The red, dotted line is what an equal distribution of voting power among all 100 Cosmos validators would look like. The blue line shows the Lorenz curve for Cosmos validators on July 19, 2019, and the green is a snapshot of August 20, 2019, yellow being April 19, 2019 (right before transfers were enabled).
Not much has changed since August, as seen by the Sep 20, 2019 snapshot, depicted by the magenta curve. Circles refer to the 50th data points, while triangles represent the 75th data points, and the diamonds represent the 90th data points.
These are items that I think are important.
I’d be grateful for new ideas and additional key metrics.
Hopefully you found this useful. Questions? Comments? Feedback is always welcome! I’m on Twitter.